16th June 2016 – 15th June 2017
This proposal builds on the results of the Innovation Triangle Initiative (ITI) Stage A "Robust Design Optimisation of Space Missions" previously completed by Prof Vasile at the University of Strathclyde. Our aim is to further develop the concepts investigated in the previous ITI and increase the TRL of the relevant technologies. Stage A demonstrated the importance of incorporating an exact Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in the design process and developed a methodology to fast propagate epistemic uncertainty through system models and produce optimal design solutions resilient to uncertainty in the design parameters by concurrently minimizing the value of system budgets (like the overall mass) and the impact of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on the system budget expected values. System budgets are treated as objectives or constraints of a multi-objective optimization problem (MOOP). Evidence Theory (ET) is used to quantify both kinds of uncertainties. In the Stage B, we intend to further develop the methodology and the techniques used in the Stage A and implement them in a prototype based on modeFRONTIER.
European Space Agency
University of Strathclyde (Prof. Massimiliano Vasile and PhD Annalisa Riccardi)